Cox Plate 2011 day tips and best bets
One of the best days in Australian racing is here with Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley. The nine race card is of course highlighted by the $3 million Tatt’s Cox Plate (2040m), although some may argue that the weight-for-age championship of Australasia will take a backward step for the grand mare of world racing, Black Caviar, when she takes on four rivals in the $300,000 Schweppes Stakes (1200m).
Race One: Microflite Inglis Banner 1000m
Back Me: Lamingtons was good down the straight behind a handy type in Cambiaso. Has the experience, hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Rise To The Top was good on debut but he has plenty going against him.
Big Danger: So Sure trialled nicely at Bendigo recently and is drawn well to do something on debut here.
Roughie: Go The Cats hasn’t been seen in public but the booking of Corey Brown is a positive lead.
Race Two: Essendon Jeep Stakes 1600m
Back Me: Going for Torah. Had the race won but the hard work just told late. She’ll get back and run on well late in a weak race.
Don’t Back Me: Big drop in grade for Bliss Street, but 59.5kg for a filly so early into the season is a big query.
Big Danger: Classic Elle had a bit of weight and bias against her when running a strong second at Moonee Valley and looks a threat here.
Roughie: Twilighting had the on-pace bias in her favour when beating Classic Elle but she’ll be thereabouts in the finish.
Race Three: 1300 Australia Stakes 1200m
Back Me: Karuta Queen will be winning if she has held her form. Second to Black Caviar last start puts her on top.
Don’t Back Me: Beckon wasn’t overly impressive last start and there is a big wrap on this youngster, but I’m happy to pass.
Big Danger: Miss Stellabelle was very impressive last start at this track and distance and Oliver will give it the gun run from the barrier.
Roughie: Glissade on a firmer track may bounce back to the form she was in earlier on in her career.
Race Four: Mitchelton Wines Vase 2040m
Back Me: Manawanui was the star track worker on Tuesday and a repeat effort here gets him home.
Don’t Back Me: Hard to say because it is a small field and there is an odds on pop that should win, maybe Power Broker.
Big Danger: Collar is looking for 2000m and beyond and the small field should see him sit on the back of Manawanui and run a nice second.
Roughie: Scelto will sit on the speed and may kick on for first four punters.
Race Five: Schweppes Stakes 1200m
Back Me: Do we need to bother? Black Caviar. That is all.
Don’t Back Me: It’d be silly writing something here.
Big Danger: Not a big danger, but Scenic Blast should get the good run and finish second in his comeback race after a stint in the US.
Roughie: Balavan will roll forward and has the best front running rider on top in Nash. Trifecta chance.
Race Six: Drake International Cup 2500m
Back Me: Looks a perfect race for Caulfield Cup placegetter Tullamore. Leads comfortably from the barrier and should just win.
Don’t Back Me: Americain is thrown in at the weights, but I’d rather watch him than back him.
Big Danger: Back to Moonee Valley is a big tick for Linton, who needs to find form heading into the Melbourne Cup.
Roughie: Paddy O’Reilly has drawn the fence and will get the soft run. Might run first three.
Race Seven: Drummond Golf Crystal Mile 1600m
Back Me: Danleigh worked well on Tuesday at Moonee Valley and if he brings his a-game, he’ll go very close to winning.
Don’t Back Me: Testa My Patience has had only one unplaced run in his 13 start career…here at Moonee Valley. Be cautious if you like him.
Big Danger: Luen Yat Forever is dying to win a race and if the pace is on for him, he’ll be threatening big time in the finish.
Roughie: Dao Dao caught the eye in the Toorak and is in the same boat as the one mentioned above.
Race Eight: Tatts W S Cox Plate 2040m
Back Me: Jimmy Choux is a champion. He has handled Moonee Valley well. Forget his work on Tuesday. He has the class and talent to win.
Don’t Back Me: Helmet. Awkward barrier, he’ll do some work from the barrier and although he got away with it last start, he won’t against the big boys and girls.
Big Danger: Secret Admirer looks to have plenty of upside left and if they go crazy in front, look out for her.
Roughie: Not the best draw for Pinker Pinker, but she is in good form and looks good overs in betting.
Race Nine: Trojan Hands Tool Stakes 1600m
Back Me: Little Surfer Girl hasn’t run a place in three attempts at 1600m but her last start win oozed class.
Don’t Back Me: Lady Lynette had every hope last start and she is poorly weighted against some classy mares here.
Big Danger: Avienus has a fab record at Moonee Valley and looks the class factor.
Roughie: Neriani was super in defeat last time out. She stepped up from 1100m to 1600m for that run and with that run under her belt, she’ll be a decent exotic chance.
Written by Adam Page
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